The Ultimate Guide to Blackjack Odds and Probability
Online blackjack is one of the most player-friendly casino games, offering some of the best blackjack odds you’ll find online. Whether you’re playing an RNG-powered game or a live dealer version, understanding how the odds of winning work can give you a real edge. Unlike games of pure chance like online pokies or roulette, blackjack blends skill with blackjack probability—meaning the right moves can help you maximise your chances of winning blackjack.
Odds of Winning in Blackjack
Your odds of winning at blackjack can be as high as 42.22%, but that doesn’t mean the house wins the remaining 57.78%. There’s a third possible outcome—a push, where neither the player nor the dealer wins. On average, 8.48% of blackjack hands end in a push, leaving the probability of a loss at 49.10%.
These odds aren’t set in stone—they shift depending on the blackjack variant, the game’s rules, and your approach. Players who don’t use basic strategy will see their odds of winning drop significantly.
To maximise your chances, it’s crucial to follow basic blackjack strategy. Knowing how to play blackjack, when to hit, stand, or double down makes all the difference. If you’re looking for quick ways to refine your game, check out our blackjack tips for actionable strategies that improve your blackjack odds.
How Basic Strategy Improves Your Odds of Winning
Your odds of winning in online blackjack come down to three key factors: basic strategy, house rules, and luck. Basic strategy dictates the choices you make, house rules determine the built-in advantages for the casino, and luck plays a role in the cards you’re dealt.
Understanding how these elements interact is essential to improving your chances at the table. With basic strategy, players can expect to win around 42-44% of hands, lose about 48-49%, and push (tie) the rest.
House Edge
The house edge is the built-in advantage that ensures the casino makes a profit over time. In blackjack, this edge comes from the fact that the dealer plays last—meaning players can bust before the dealer even takes action. However, blackjack has one of the lowest house edges of any casino game, sitting at around 0.5% when played with basic strategy.
Think of it like this: If a game has a 2% house edge, the casino expects to make $2 for every $100 wagered over the long run. In blackjack, that number can be as low as 50 cents per $100 when you stick to optimal play. Online blackjack games often feature some of the highest RTP percentages, frequently exceeding 99%.
Blackjack house odds depend on strategy and game rules:
- Basic strategy house edge: Around 0.5% in an optimal rules game.
- Casual player house edge: This can be as high as 2% or more if strategy is not used.
- Card counting house edge: Not applicable to RNG blackjack but can shift in the player’s favour (up to 1%) in live dealer games under ideal conditions.
Return To Player
Mastering basic strategy ensures optimal moves, reducing the house edge and increasing return to player. Unlike guessing or playing on gut instinct, basic strategy provides mathematically optimal moves for every situation. Here’s how it directly impacts your RTP:
- With basic strategy: RTP is around 99.5%.
- With poor strategy: RTP can drop to 98% or lower.
- With card counting (live blackjack): RTP can exceed 100%, particularly in live dealer blackjack games where card counting can sometimes be applied effectively.
Rules and Variations
Additionally, specific rule variations impact the blackjack house odds differently in RNG and live dealer settings. For example:
- Dealer Hits on Soft 17: Increases the house edge by approximately 0.2%, making it less favourable for players.
- Double Down After Split Allowed: Reduces the house edge by about 0.15%, providing better blackjack odds for strategic players.
- Late Surrender Available: Surrender in blackjack lowers the house edge by around 0.08%, allowing players to minimise losses.
- Six or Eight Decks vs. Single Deck: More decks increase the house edge slightly due to reduced effectiveness of card counting in live dealer blackjack games.
Player’s Odds Table
Just like we analyzed the dealer’s hand, we can apply the same logic to our own. The key difference? We already know our two-card hand, giving us an advantage in decision-making. Unlike the dealer, our goal is to minimise the risk of busting when we hit. By understanding blackjack probability, we can make strategic choices that improve our odds of winning.
- Hit: Choosing to take an additional card to increase your hand’s value.
| Player’s Hand | Chance of Busting |
|---|---|
| 11 or less | 0% |
| 12 | 31% |
| 13 | 39% |
| 14 | 56% |
| 15 | 58% |
| 16 | 62% |
| 17+ | 69% |
Dealer’s Odds Table
Now that we’ve covered the house edge, let’s dive into how the dealer’s hand impacts your strategy. Before you even play your cards, there’s a way to assess the dealer’s likelihood of going bust. This matters because when the dealer busts, you win instantly. While luck plays a role, understanding blackjack probability can help you predict the dealer’s bust rate based on their face-up card—known as the upcard.
- Upcard: The dealer’s first visible card, which helps guide your decisions.
- Bust-out: A hand total exceeding 21, automatically losing the round.
| Dealer’s Upcard | Chance of Busting |
|---|---|
| 2 | 35% |
| 3 | 37% |
| 4 | 40% |
| 5 | 42% |
| 6 | 42% |
| 7 | 26% |
| 8 | 24% |
| 9 | 23% |
| 10 | 23% |
| Ace | 17% |
Which Online Blackjack Variants Offer the Best Odds?
The best blackjack odds occur when players follow basic strategy, reducing the house edge to as low as 0.5%. This makes online blackjack games one of the most player-friendly casino games. However, odds can vary based on rules in a particular blackjack variant, such as the number of decks used, whether the dealer hits or stands on soft 17, and whether doubling after a split is allowed.
Different blackjack games offer varying blackjack odds. For example:
- European Blackjack: Typically has a lower house edge (around 0.39%) due to the dealer standing on soft 17 and no hole card.
- Vegas Strip Blackjack: Has a house edge of approximately 0.46% with player-friendly rules, including the ability to double down after a split.
- Atlantic City Blackjack: Features late surrender and allows doubling after a split, keeping the house edge at around 0.36%.
- Single Deck Blackjack: Offers the best blackjack odds with a house edge as low as 0.15%, but is harder to find online as it benefits skilled players more than the casino game.
What Are the Odds of Getting a Blackjack?
In online blackjack games, each hand is generated independently, meaning card-counting strategies are ineffective, and probabilities remain consistent. In live dealer blackjack games, where a real deck is used and shuffled periodically, probabilities can shift slightly based on previous hands played.
A blackjack (an Ace and a 10-value card) occurs in about 4.83% of hands. The probability changes slightly depending on the number of decks used:
- Single deck: 4.83%
- Two decks: 4.78%
- Six decks: 4.75%
- Eight decks: 4.75%
Expert Tips: Using Online Blackjack Odds to Win Tricky Hands
Navigating tricky hands in blackjack games requires more than just luck—it’s about making the right decisions based on blackjack probability. Let’s look at a few real-world examples to illustrate how applying basic strategy can shift the blackjack odds in your favour.
- When to hit: If you have 12-16 against a dealer’s 7 or higher, hitting is usually the best choice. For instance, if you’re dealt a 10 and a 2, and the dealer shows a Queen, your best bet is to hit since standing puts you in a weak position.
- When to stand: Standing on 17 or higher is generally advised unless you have a soft hand (Ace + another card). Imagine you have an Ace and a 6 against a dealer’s 5. You might think you’re safe, but hitting gives you a chance to improve without much risk of busting.
- When to double down: If you have 11 and the dealer has anything except an Ace, doubling down improves your blackjack odds. For example, if you hold a 6 and a 5 against the dealer’s 9, doubling down puts you in a strong position to capitalise on a high-value card.
- When to split: Always split Aces and 8s. Consider a hand where you receive two 8s, and the dealer shows a 9. Splitting allows you to play two stronger hands rather than a single, difficult 16.
By making the right move at the right time, you can tilt the blackjack odds slightly in your favour and improve your long-term performance.
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Conclusion
Getting a handle on blackjack odds is key to making informed bets. While luck plays a role, smart strategy puts the power in your hands. Stick to blackjack games with favourable rules, follow basic strategy to keep the house edge low, and if you’re after a more engaging experience, play blackjack in a live dealer setting for a dynamic way to test your skills.
Emily is our seasoned content writer. She writes easy to read and helpful game guides, so you can quickly understand the rules of each game and get some useful tips that can help boost your chances of winning.
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